Hello out there, the disinterested cynic here. War between Israel and Iran is looming and it looks like it could be sooner rather than later. According to CBN News, I know I know that fake news show looks a lot like Joe Goebbels’ outfit, Israel is plotting on . . . . well . . . . uh . . . . canceling Iran’s nuclear program in a time frame that stretches from shortly after the November Elections to shortly after the inauguration of the new president. According to the ministry of Christofascist propaganda:
JERUSALEM, Israel – Russian President Dmitry Medvedev announced last week an attack on Iran’s nuclear program would endanger the entire world. Medvedev’s comment is just the latest barometer of what’s at stake in today’s volatile Middle East.
Collision Course
Russian tanks rumbled through Georgia in its most aggressive military action since the end of the Cold War.
Meanwhile Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad continues his rants and threats to eliminate the Jewish state of Israel.
Numerous reports indicate Israel is preparing for a military strike on Iran’s nuclear plants.
These forces are all part of today’s Middle East landscape, forces that well might be on a collision course.
“In Israel, people having in the back of their mind past traumas, especially the Holocaust are truly afraid that the minute Ahmadinejad lays hands on a nuclear weapon, he will drop it on Israelis heads,” said Ronen Bergman, an Israeli investigative journalist and author of “The Secret War With Iran.”
He says Iran is Israel’s number one concern.
“Since 2002, since General Meir Dagan was appointed Mossad General Director, the Israeli foreign intelligence service is basically working on one issue and one issue alone and this issue is Iran,” he said.
October Surprise
Many analysts believe Israel won’t tolerate a nuclear Iran, but don’t expect an immediate response.
The last thing Israeli leaders want is to be part of an “October Surprise” before the U.S. elections. But they also know that the window to stop Iran from going nuclear may soon be closed.
“Mossad estimates of what they term as the first nuclear device is at the end of 2009 and the beginning of 2010,” Bergman said.
Whatever the estimate of when Iran can produce nuclear weapons, some suspect an Israeli military strike might take place after the U.S. presidential election and before the inauguration of the new President.
Bergman is one analyst who expects a strike at a later date – after the inauguration.
“At present time, if things continue as they are, I think we should expect a very tense, though quiet days in the Middle East,” he said.
Questions that Linger
Regardless of the time frame, a number of unanswered questions hang over the Middle East: Will Israel attack Iran? Will the U.S. attack as well, or assist Israel militarily? And if an attack is launched, what will be the consequences? What would Russia do?
http://www.cbn.com/CBNnews/446008.aspx
Now here is where this thing gets downright scary. We have sold the Israelis 1000 bunker busters obstinantly to hit Hezbollah and Hamas arsenals in Gaza and the West Bank, but one has to bear in mind that conventional weapons already in the Israeli arsenal could take these out,no these are to attack Iran and lest you think I am making this stuff up here is what the AP had to say about this:
JERUSALEM – The U.S. plans to sell Israel 1,000 buster-bunker bombs which Israeli military experts said Monday could provide a powerful new weapon against underground arsenals in Lebanon or Gaza.
The experts said they doubted, however, that the bombs could be used to deliver a crippling blow against Iran’s nuclear program.
In announcing the proposed $77 million deal, which still needs Congressional approval, the U.S. Defense Department said the sale of the Boeing GBU-39 smart bombs would be consistent with the U.S. interest of assisting Israel “to develop and maintain a strong and ready self-defense capability.” The Pentagon issued a release on the planned sale on Sept. 9.
Because it is a precision weapon that generates far less collateral damage than heavier munitions, “this bomb is going to be the general-purpose bomb of the next generation,” said Yiftah Shapir, a military analyst at Tel Aviv’s Institute of National Security Studies. He said possible targets would include “Katyusha launchers in Lebanon or Qassam (rocket) launchers in Gaza.”
Shlomo Brom, the Israeli military’s former chief of strategic planning, noted an increasing tendency to place weapons underground.
In Israel’s 2006 war against Lebanon’s Hezbollah guerrilla group, “one of our problems had been that they put many of the rocket launchers in bunkers and fortifications underground ,” Brom said.
One hardened target the military went after in that war was the bunker of Hezbollah chief Sheik Hassan Nasrallah, Israeli security officials have said. Nasrallah survived the fighting, but has been in hiding since the war.
Past U.S. sales of bunker-buster bombs to Israel have been construed as a veiled threat against Iran’s nuclear program.
But Brom and Shapir said they did not think they would be used against Iran, where key nuclear facilities such as the uranium enrichment plant at Nantanz are buried deep and hardened by yards of concrete.
“You would need something a lot heavier,” he said. The GBU-39 can penetrate 6 feet of concrete, and “6 feet is not enough,” he said.
Despite a 2007 National Intelligence Estimate that concluded Iran suspended its nuclear weapons program in 2003, Israel and many in the United States still believe Iran’s nuclear program is geared toward developing weapons. Iran insists the program is only for producing electricity.
Israel hopes Iran can be induced through sanctions and diplomacy to scale back its nuclear ambitions, but has not ruled out a military strike.
The GBU-39 is “a weapon Israel needs for general purposes,” said Shapir, who questioned Israel’s capability to deal a blow to Iran’s nuclear program. “But attaching this thing to an attack on Iran is propaganda, in my view.”
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20080915/ap_on_re_mi_ea/ml_israel_bunker_busters
Now if Israel’s plans to take out Iran’s nuclear program and our selling Israel the weapons needed to do the job are not bad enough lets talk about recent developments in Georgia. It seems that NATO is planning to place fighter planes in Georgia officially for the purposes of fending off future Russian aggression. However, according to Russiatoday.com those planes would be used for operations against Iran.
‘U.S. may use Georgian air bases to strike at Iran’
The U.S. military could have plans to use Georgian air bases to launch air strikes against Iran, according to Russia’s envoy to NATO Dmitry Rogozin. He pointed out that Georgia would be the perfect base for a potential U.S. operation in Iran.
Speaking in Brussels, Dmitry Rogozin said:
“What NATO is doing now in Georgia is restoring its ability to monitor its airspace, in other words restoring the whole locator system and an anti-missile defence system which were destroyed by Russian artillery. Now these systems are being restored as soon as possible. We have unconfirmed information that American ships under cover of himanitarian aid have delivered all the equipment necessary for the restoration of these systems.
He noted that there it is impossible that these preparations are designed for Georgia’s protection against Russia, since the war in the Caucasus is over and all the security measures in South Ossetia and Abkhazia are being pursued.
“It’s done for logistic support of some air operations either of the Alliance as a whole or of the United States in particular in this region. The swift reconstruction of the airfields and all the systems proves that some air operation is being planned against another country which is located not far from Georgia. What country could it be? Which country is in the spotlight now? Of course it’s Iran, there are no other countries,” the envoy said.
Rogozin also added that if a U.S. military operation against Iran goes ahead, he would have “pity for Georgia, because Iran is certain to defend itself.”
Rogozin called for the U.S. to support Russia’s effort to engage Iran in international dialogue. According to him, threatening and pressuring Iran only “gives Teheran more arguments in favour of building some sort of weapons of mass destruction”.
Iran has been in a state of diplomatic conflict with leading world powers over its nuclear programme. The state government argues that it needs enriched uranium for the peaceful generation of electricity. However, Western analysts argue that the program is geared toward weapon production.
The US hasn’t denied that a military option exists to deal with the Iranian issue. This has spawned numerous theories on how and when the US could attack Iran. To read RT’s report on the issue follow the link.
Nevertheless, David Wurmser, a former key national security adviser to UN Vice President Dick Cheney, has said that President Bush is highly unlikely to take any military action against Iran before he leaves office.
“Two things have to be in place for there to be an attack – and that time has run out, and that diplomacy has run out,” Wursner said in Brussels after a day-long meeting on nuclear nonproliferation. “The feeling to a large extent now is that diplomacy is working, that there is a trend in the regime toward moderation, that pressure is building on the regime.”
The Islamic Republic is currently under three sets of relatively minor UN sanctions. However, the government denies a possibility of folding its nuclear programme.
Iran’s nuclear programme
The Iranian government insists that it is functioning fully in accordance with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). The Treaty’s terms state that a country is allowed to enrich its own fuel to a level suitable for civil nuclear power. Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has repeatedly stressed that the country will not break its NTP obligations. He argues that international pressures on the country amount to bullying.
The UN’s Security Council is concerned that the same technology used to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes can be used to produce nuclear warheads. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has pointed out that there are two outstanding issues with Iran’s nuclear porgramme. Primarily, Iran has not explicitly clarified its position in relation to studies into nuclear armament. Moreover, it has not allowed extra inspections into all of the enrichment facilities. Nevertheless, there have been no confirmed reports of Iran enriching weapons-grade uranium. U.S. intelligence reports have stated that the possibility of Iran reaching a sufficient level of technology to make a nuclear weapon even by late 2009 is “highly unlikely”.
Ahmadinejad has called the UN’s demand to inspect all of the country’s enrichment facilities “illegitimate”. Time and time again Iran announced that it would not yield to international pressures and its peaceful programme of uranium enrichment would remain unchanged.
Fact file
On September 15, Iran’s air force and units of its missile defence force began military exercises across half the country. The scenario of the war games will see the use of spy planes to collect intelligence on enemy moves. Next, the army is tasked with repulsing a missile attack on Iranian ‘objects and systems’. In the final phase of the drill, the army of the Islamic Republic practises destroying the ‘most vulnerable areas of enemy territory’.
Two months before the exercises began Tehran tested new domestically-made missiles, among them an upgraded version of the ‘Shekhab-3’ rocket. That missile is capable of reaching Israel and the Persian Gulf, where U.S. military bases are located. The range of the new rocket is more than 2,000km. The distance between Iran and Georgia is about 1,000km.
http://www.russiatoday.com/news/news/30579
Now America’s involvement in Georgia makes perfect sense, first we take a desire for war against Iran. Second we want our war without Russian intervention. Third we want to pound Iran from all sides. So with all this in mind we goad our ally Mikheil Saakashvili to commit genocide in South Ossetia and Abkhazia knowing full well that Russia will come to the defense of people who are ethnic Russians, and as soon as Russia comes to the defense of their peace keepers and nationals our government instantaneously get the media to shape popular support against them and the Bush administration denounces Russia and sends an “aid” package (read: weapons) to Georgia. Under the pretext of defending Georgia’s territorial integrity the American government gets to put advanced military technology against Iran and with this Iran is encircles on the north (Georgia and Turkey), the West (Iraq), the East (Afghanistan) and the south (the fleet in the Gulf).
The planes we will be placing in Georgia in the very near future are there for a duel purpose. The first is to bully and intimidate Russia, remember when Bush says bullying and intimidation are unacceptable in the twenty first century he is referring to every other nation besides the United States, and the second is for strategic positioning against Iran. What makes this situation so dire is that I really doubt that Russia -especially with their current government in power- will take all this lying down. Russia, because of our meddling in their affairs during the South Ossetian Conflict, is now looking to play the old Cold War ploy of tit for tat. This is evidenced by their increased support for Cuba, their selling of several billions of dollars worth of weapons to Chavez and sending their navy and some strategic bombers to Caracas, their ever increasing ties to China, North Korea, and Medvedev’s recent statements of support for Iran as well as Russia’s increased military and research investments in Iran. The Russians have proven that it is unwise to toy with them and it is almost as foolish to mess with Iran.
The following is the absolute worst, and therefore very likely course of events should we get Israel to bomb Iran. First, Israel takes out Iran’s nuclear reactors. In response Iran calls on Russia to remember their alliance and Iran fires its missiles at Saudi oil fields and our fleet and kills many people. Russia responds by striking Israel. Israel asks America for help and so our fighters and bombers in Georgia, Ukraine, and the Baltic strike targets in Russia. This results in the Russians retaliating by striking back at our airforce bases. In the absolute worst case scenario America and Russia are wiped out in a nuclear catastrophe. Lets hope not, but I fear that our recent actions against Russia and Iran may have opened Pandora’s box and there is no hope of closing it.
